Demand for key energy minerals continued to grow through 2025, with structural drivers in electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems, grid expansion, renewables and broader electrification underpinning this trend. Lithium demand remained exceptionally strong, building on a nearly 30% rise in 2024, and continued to expand in 2025 and into 2026 as battery and energy storage markets scaled further. Projections suggest lithium demand could grow roughly another 13–15% in 2026, albeit from an already elevated base, with energy storage and EVs as primary demand anchors.
Demand for other battery metals — including nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements — also continued to increase, though at lower rates relative to lithium. While exact figures vary by report, these metals remain essential to battery chemistries and energy transition applications, and demand growth through 2025 aligned with broader electrification trends.
Copper demand sustained robust growth, driven by its critical role in grid infrastructure, EV charging networks and data center electrification. Several industry sources report continued tight fundamentals for copper, with demand growth outpacing near-term supply increases and inventories on major exchanges tightening through 2025.
Despite some moderation in EV sales growth in China, global electrification drivers continued to account for a large share of total demand growth in energy minerals — mirroring past patterns where clean-energy applications drove the majority of incremental demand.
Supply Growth Continued to Outpace Demand – Especially for Battery Metals
Across 2025 and into 2026, supply expansions for battery metals remained significant, especially in countries that already dominate production. China continued to expand processing and refining capacity, particularly for lithium chemicals and natural graphite, and many emerging producers also contributed to supply growth. New lithium carbonate production capacity in China alone was estimated to reach 500,000–600,000 tonnes in 2026 as processing capability expanded aggressively.
Global lithium raw materials supply was forecast to increase nearly 10% in 2026, outpacing consumption growth in some quarters and narrowing deficits seen in earlier years.
Indonesia remained a dominant supplier of nickel, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continued to lead cobalt output, and China held strong positions in graphite and rare earth materials. Continued supply concentration has led to geopolitical interest in diversifying sources, including through strategic agreements with major producers.
Overall, supply growth for battery metals through 2025 and into 2026 outpaced near-term demand growth, exerting downward pressure on many prices — particularly for battery raw materials with large installed capacity expansions.
Price Trends: Continued Weakness for Battery Metals, Strengthening for Base and Precious Metals
Because production capacity continued growing faster than consumption for many battery metals, price pressure persisted through 2025 and into 2026, especially for lithium products. After dramatic price volatility earlier in the decade, lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices dropped to multi-year lows in 2025 as oversupply and project backlogs weighed on markets.
However, forecasts suggest that the lithium market could begin to rebalance in 2026 with tighter supply-demand dynamics and higher marginal prices as inventories normalize and energy storage demand remains strong.
In contrast to battery materials, major base metals such as copper, aluminium and zinc saw price uplifts in 2025, driven by inventory drawdowns, supply disruptions in key producing regions, and sustained industrial demand. Copper prices in particular climbed significantly in 2025 and early 2026, reaching record highs on some exchanges and remaining elevated amid tight fundamentals.
Market analysts predict that most metals will average higher prices in 2026 relative to 2025 as the global economy stabilizes and structural supply constraints persist, especially where new mine projects face long lead times and higher capital costs.
Tin and silver prices continued their strong performance through 2025, supported by supply disruptions (notably in Southeast Asia and Africa) and rising industrial demand from electronics and solar technologies. Silver also benefited from increased investor interest amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Underlying Structural Themes in 2025–2026
- Energy transition demand remains the dominant driver for critical minerals, although growth rates in some technologies (e.g., EVs) have moderated from earlier peaks.
- Supply concentration and geopolitical risk continued to shape markets, with major producers and refiners holding substantial shares and Western governments pursuing strategic diversification.
- Investment dynamics remain complex, as low raw material prices have restrained new project development in some segments even as future deficits are forecast for key minerals like copper and lithium over the long term.
- Price trends diverged across commodity types, with battery metals under pressure from oversupply and base/precious metals gaining on supply constraints and stronger industrial demand.
Summary
Overall, data from 2025–2026 show that ample supply growth continued to exert downward pressure on battery metal prices, even as demand expanded robustly across energy transition sectors. While lithium and other battery metal markets are expected to gradually rebalance in 2026, prices of base and precious metals like copper and silver rallied due to tightening fundamentals and broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.